(ProfesseurForex.com) – Le bain de sang continue sur les bourses, plombées par le secteur bancaire. Les marchés s’inquiètent beaucoup du mastodonte Allemand nommé Deutsche Bank dont le prix de l’action est en chute libre.
Les marchés sont obnubilés par les bourses aujourd’hui mais Janet Yellen va bientôt attirer l’attention via son témoignage semi-annuel devant le comité bancaire du Congrès US. Voici le genre de questions auxquelles la présidente de la FED va probablement devoir répondre à Capitol Hill.
Il est clair que tout le monde attend de voir si la présidente de la FED montre une once de regret vis-à-vis de la hausse des taux directeurs en Décembre.
Depuis cette hausse des taux, les bourses ont reculé de manière significative, les taux d’emprunt US ont baissé, paradoxalement et les marchés de futures adossés aux FED funds suggèrent qu’il n’y aura pas de nouvelle hausse des taux cette année… Sans mentionner que désormais il y a 5500 Mds de dettes souveraines qui offrent des taux négatifs.
Les gouverneurs de la FED ont donc commencé à concéder que 4 hausses de taux cette année seraient peut être un peu too much. Le Président de la FED de NY, Mr Dudley a suggéré qu’une hausse des taux en Mars n’était plus d’actualité étant donné le resserrement des conditions financières depuis le début de l’année.
Donc une question à poser à Janet Yellen : L’économie s’est vraiment tant dégradée en deux mois ou bien vos prévisions étaient très loin de la réalité, suggérant que le timing de la hausse des taux a été un désastre ?
Il serait aussi intéressant de demander si Janet Yellen croit vraiment que le taux de chômage est représentatif de la situation réelle et si l’inflation salariale (2.5 % y/y) va permettre de supporter l’IPC. Est-ce que le taux de chômage ne serait pas plutôt de 20 % ? Est-ce qu’un tel taux de chômage justifie une hausse des taux ?
Les anticipations d’inflation commencent à être inquiétantes. Elles ne collent pas vraiment avec les prévisions de la FED…
Les perspectives de croissance s’assombrissent nettement depuis plusieurs mois. La question est donc :
Allez vous vraiment rehausser vos taux directeurs par 4 fois cette année ?
Difficile de répondre oui à cette question étant donné le sentiment des marchés qui s’inquiètent de plus en plus d’un ralentissement mondial plus que palpable.
Copyright (c) 2016 ProfesseurForex.com. Tous droits réservés.
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