(ProfesseurForex.com) – La FED a décidé de réduire de nouveau son QE de 10 Mds $. De manière égale (5 Mds) au niveau des achats de treasuries et de MBS (actifs adossés au marché immobilier).
Le taux directeur reste évidemment à 0-0.25 %.
Pas de changement non plus au niveau de la Forward guidance et soulignons qu’il n’y aura pas de conférence de presse de la part de Ben Bernanke dans la foulée du communiqué, contrairement à ce que nous avions écris. Nos excuses.
– Pas de grand changement non plus au niveau de l’appréciation de la conjoncture économique. Les perspectives d’inflation à long terme restent stables.
– Le marché immobilier a quelque peu ralentit ces derniers temps.
– Le taux de chômage a reculé mais reste élevé.
– Les investissements (commandes de biens durables hum hum) et dépenses de consommation ont progressé
– Les risques au niveau de l’emploi et de la croissance deviennent presque équilibrés
– La faible inflation fait peser un risque sur l’économie
– La FED va continuer d’utiliser ses outils de politique monétaire et notamment le QE tant que l’emploi ne se sera pas amélioré de manière substantielle dans un contexte de stabilité des prix
Ainsi, la FED ne fait pas référence au mauvais rapport NFP ni aux commandes de biens durables (investissement) très décevantes. Pas grand chose ne change si ce n’est que la FED semble légèrement plus optimiste qu’auparavant et notamment au niveau de l’emploi et de l’investissement.
C’est en somme un communiqué légèrement plus Hawkish qu’anticipé (ce qui supporte le Dollar).
Les 10 gouverneurs ont voté unanimement pour cette réduction du QE.
La volatilité est faible alors qu’en observant les mouvements en début d’après-midi nous pouvions nous attendre à un peu plus. Mais la FED délivre finalement ce qui a été anticipé sans surprises.
La volatilité pourrait être tout autre le mois prochain car trois réductions d’affilée signifierait un rythme peut être un peu plus rapide que ce que l’aurait anticipé le marché.
Finissons par souligner que USD/JPY reste au plus bas. EUR/USD pourrait donc ne pas aller très loin à la baisse. Prochain rendez-vous, le PIB US, qui nous permettra de jauger si le FOMC a effectivement raison de rester optimiste.
Voici le communiqué en Anglais pour les anglophiles:
The full text of the FOMC statement on January 29, 2014:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren, who believes that, with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation rate well below the target, changes in the purchase program are premature until incoming data more clearly indicate that economic growth is likely to be sustained above its potential rate.
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